The overnight Treasury rally has a credible catalyst: divided government potentially restrains incremental fiscal expansion while oil has fallen back into the mid-$90s. But the 10-year remains near 5%, real yields are restrictive and corporate spreads remain unusually wide. Today’s Treasury refunding announcement, ADP employment and ISM Services data will

The Treasury rally remains intact, but its risk/reward is becoming less one-directional. The 10-year is now around 4.9%, long-duration ETFs have already posted substantial monthly gains, and credit spreads remain unusually wide despite lower government-bond yields. Today's JOLTS report will test the Fed side of that trade, while the election

The Treasury rally enters November with better support from slower wage growth and sharply lower oil, but the deterioration in corporate spreads keeps the message defensive. A 10-year yield below 5% improves the fixed-income opportunity set, yet wider IG/HY OAS, elevated MOVE and a steepening long end argue against chasing

COMMENTARY: U.S. fixed income markets delivered modest positive returns for the week ending October 30, as investors balanced inflation concerns, Federal Reserve policy, and economic resilience. The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.75%–4.00%, emphasizing uncertainty surrounding inflation and the future path of monetary policy. The 10-year

The Treasury rally has regained momentum, but its drivers have shifted toward risk aversion and quality demand rather than a decisive improvement in the inflation outlook. Falling yields support intermediate-duration bonds, but widening credit spreads, oil above $100 and persistent core inflation argue for maintaining discipline. Favor intermediate Treasuries, investment-grade

The Fed pause is largely priced, making today's signal more about Warsh's forward guidance than the rate decision itself. The bond rally has improved the opportunity set, but 5% 10-year yields, elevated real rates, oil above $100 and firm economic activity keep long Treasuries tactical. Favor intermediate Treasuries, investment-grade credit,

The fixed-income setup remains attractive, but the source of return is changing. The 10-year is holding below 5%, real yields remain near their one-year highs, and investment-grade, intermediate Treasury and municipal flows are improving. At the same time, credit spreads remain elevated and WTI is still above $100. Tomorrow’s Fed

The fixed-income setup entering Fed week is unusually balanced. The 10-year remains below 5%, crude is retreating from Friday’s six-month high, and Treasuries have regained their ability to hedge equity weakness. Yet October PMIs show exceptionally strong growth and rising price pressure, while consumer inflation expectations continue moving higher. That