Crude prices approaching $100 are reviving inflation and rate-hike concerns, overpowering the traditional safe-haven bid for government bonds. A renewed surge in oil prices sent global bond yields sharply higher Thursday morning as investors focused on the inflationary consequences of the escalating U.S.–Iran conflict rather than seeking safety in government debt. Brent crude climbed nearly … Read more
Escalating attacks across the Persian Gulf pushed oil higher and revived stagflation concerns. Treasuries weakened as inflation risk outweighed safe-haven demand, while TIPS outperformed nominal bonds only modestly because real yields also rose, limiting absolute gains across inflation-linked securities overall.
Washington is rebuilding its tariff wall through targeted country and sector duties after emergency tariffs faced legal setbacks. New actions against Canada and Brazil raise costs selectively, while proposed levies on dozens of countries point toward a broader, durable regime.
Street Views finds the strongest strategist agreement in carry, quality and intermediate duration. Short and intermediate bonds, securitized credit, loans and selective spread exposure lead, while BDCs, preferreds and REITs remain supporting income sleeves rather than substitutes for fixed income.
ADP’s high-frequency payroll measure weakened for a third week, while unemployment claims fell. The combination points to a slower but still-stable labor market rather than an imminent recession. This week’s employment data delivered a nuanced message: U.S. companies are becoming more cautious about hiring, but they are not broadly cutting existing workers. ADP’s NER Pulse … Read more
June’s producer-price decline reinforced signs that inflation cooled before renewed energy volatility. Falling goods and gasoline prices eased pipeline pressure, but rising service costs and elevated annual inflation leave the Federal Reserve cautious about declaring victory too soon on inflation.
Investment-grade credit and core bond ETFs continued to dominate investor allocations over the past month, reinforcing the view that investors remain committed to generating income while limiting interest-rate risk rather than making an aggressive duration bet. According to the July 14 ETFFixedIncome.com Fixed Income ETF Universe (FactSet data), the largest one-month inflows were concentrated in … Read more
Private employers continued to add jobs, but the downshift reinforces evidence that labor demand is cooling as inflation pressures ease. U.S. private-sector hiring slowed again in the latest high-frequency ADP report, adding to evidence that the labor market is losing momentum without yet tipping into outright contraction. Private employers added an average of 19,750 jobs … Read more
June’s CPI surprise showed consumer inflation cooling sharply, but elevated producer prices warn that upstream costs remain unsettled. The divergence reduces near-term Fed tightening risk while leaving open margin pressure, delayed pass-through and a renewed inflation pulse later this year.
Key takeaways from our weekly survey of Wall Street strategy reports shows the macro and market setup still favors income over aggressive duration. Treasury yields remain elevated, the labor market is cooling but not breaking, and inflation risk is not low enough to justify a large long-bond bet. Reuters noted the 10-year Treasury near 4.6%, … Read more